![]() ![]() The growing frequency of violent storms - which many weather and climate scientists warn will persist - is pushing meteorologists to figure out how to better communicate the risks. For millions, the warnings lasted for hours well into the night.Īnother factor in the severity of the flooding is that many parts of the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast have had an exceptionally wet summer, meaning soil is saturated and the risk of flooding is even greater. The flooding on those days accounts for 35 percent of flood deaths and 86 percent of flood-related damage.Īs the event unfolded, forecasters raised their alarms, issuing flash flood warnings and flash flood emergencies warning of life-threatening, destructive and deadly flash flooding and imploring people to seek higher ground and not to drive through flooded roadways. That type of designation is reserved for the highest echelon of forecast flood events, issued only about 16 days a years. The information was in the National Hurricane Center’s discussion for Hurricane Ida published Monday. Two days before the storm, flash flood watches went up for 70 million people, and the day before, forecasters pulled the trigger on a “high” risk for flash flooding.Ĭonsiderable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding were mentioned for the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast on Wednesday. Forecast models were predicting high rain totals across parts of the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast five days before the storm hit and offered escalating warnings after that. The days leading up to the storm highlight what the system got right. “That’s why urban flash flooding is such a threat.” “Rain flows more quickly on pavement than across grass, so runoff can allow water to pool much more readily in an urban landscape than, say, across a meadow,” Henson said. “That was what really drove the flash aspect of the flooding and what caused the really rapid water rise.”Įven when forecasts predict extreme rainfall, it can be hard for people to grasp just how much water can fall in a short time. “It wasn’t that it was 6 inches in a day, but most of that fell in a couple of hours,” said Bob Henson, a meteorologist and writer for Yale Climate Connections, an online news service. But the intense rainfall still seemed to catch many off-guard, underscoring just how difficult it can be to predict the most dangerous aspects of climate change-fueled storms. The storm was forecast days in advance the New York office of the National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch as early as Monday. The result was one of the deadliest and most destructive flash flood events to hit the tri-state area, with at least 41 people dead by Thursday evening. Both cities experienced 1-in-500-year rainfall events. New York City’s 7.1 inches of rain was its fifth wettest day. Wednesday was the wettest day on record in Newark, with total rainfall of 8.4 inches. ![]()
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